4
Darby Dreams
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 38
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 8.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-2 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength70%
Delivery trend -11.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 25/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |