3
Purpose
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 66
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-03-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 13/06/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 10/07/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 23/10/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 07/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |