1
Tahila
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 68
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-04-30 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-04-02 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -10.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 02/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 30/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 07/06/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |