5
Well Documented
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 60
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +22.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |