Trinity River
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 58
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-11-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | -2th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 11% | -0.70 |
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 57% | -0.38 |
| 19/11/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 83% | -0.14 |