7
Montauk Memoirs
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 55
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength94%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +2.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-11-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-10-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-09-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 16/07/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 05/08/2025 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 01/09/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 29/09/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 17/11/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |