New Matthew
4yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 68
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-09-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 04/08/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 21/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 12/09/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |
| 03/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 11/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |