10
Noguchi
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 76
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength55%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 29% | -0.61 |
| 23/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 15/01/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 01/03/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 02/04/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 16/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |