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Propitious

3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 70

Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

73%

Place Prob

53%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength73%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Finger Lakes 11/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 5f 120 · HIGHER CLASS11/05C6C6 @ Finger Lakes 22/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 65 · 1m 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 65 par22/06C6OR 65C6 @ Finger Lakes 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 58 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 58 par20/07C6OR 58C6 @ Finger Lakes 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 59 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 59 par11/08C6OR 59C5 @ Finger Lakes 25/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 64 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 64 par25/08C5OR 64projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Finger Lakes?5th2nd+3
2026-08-11Finger Lakes?1st-1th+2
2026-07-20Finger Lakes?3rd1st+2
2026-06-22Finger Lakes?5th3rd+2
2026-05-11Finger Lakes?3rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0522/0620/0711/0825/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +27.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/05/20263rd11/893%50%-0.43
22/06/20265th7/491%20%-0.71
20/07/20263rd9/153%75%+0.22
11/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
25/08/20265th25/10%33%+0.33