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2

Beach Invasion

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 80

Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Aqueduct 15/11/2024 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 70 · 6f Fm 119 · below its mark15/11/2024 · OR 70 par15/11C6OR 70C9 @ Fair Grounds 19/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 69 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark19/12/2025 · OR 69 parC9 @ Fair Grounds 25/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 64 · 1m Slo 125 · below its mark25/01/2026 · OR 64 par25/01C9OR 64C9 @ Fair Grounds 27/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 66 · 1m Slo 125 · below its mark27/02/2026 · OR 66 parC9 @ Fair Grounds 08/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 67 · 1m Slo 125 · below its mark08/03/2026 · OR 67 par8/03C9OR 67C6 @ Finger Lakes 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 73 · 1m 124 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 73 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 71 · 1m70y 124 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 71 par22/06C5OR 71C5 @ Finger Lakes 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 71 · 1m70y 124 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 71 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 19/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 75 · 1m70y 124 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 75 par19/08C5OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Finger Lakes?2nd2nd0
2026-07-27Finger Lakes?1st1st0
2026-06-22Finger Lakes?1st1st0
2026-05-27Finger Lakes?1st2nd−1
2026-03-08Fair Grounds?2nd6th−4
2026-02-27Fair Grounds?2nd6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1127/0222/0619/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/11/202410th10/147%0%-0.47
19/12/20256th7/282%38%-0.44
25/01/20262nd14/126%80%+0.54
27/02/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
08/03/20262nd2/189%83%-0.06
27/05/20261st2/598%100%+0.02
22/06/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
27/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
19/08/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07