3
Probability
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 89
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2024 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 56% | -0.34 |
| 21/09/2024 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 09/01/2026 | 2nd | 1/7 | 99% | 75% | -0.24 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 17/04/2026 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 03/06/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 2/13 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |