6
Foxy Cara
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 74
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 11/01/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |