4
Kaz Music
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 73
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 22/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 04/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 19/11/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |