3
Lady Serenity
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 73
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
65%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength52%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |