5
Numeric
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 55
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 19/11/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |