9
Timely Reward
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 81
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 07/01/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 25/01/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 25/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 33% | -0.61 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |