10
Honor For Mandin
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 39
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength67%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 04/11/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |