11
Just A Guy
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 43
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength38%
Delivery trend +7.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 29/10/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 08/06/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 30/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 11/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 25/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |