3
Midnight Musume
5yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 48
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |