5
Stormy's Dreaming
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 59
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength34%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 16/07/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 12/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 10/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 24/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |