4
Strand Road
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 63
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 03/05/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 21/06/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 18/07/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |
| 13/09/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 27/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 31/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |