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8

Valiant Warrior

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 63

Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength86%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Louisiana Downs 01/03/2016 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 0m1f80y 1221/03C?C6 @ Finger Lakes 01/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Finger Lakes 29/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 37 · 5f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 37 par29/09C6OR 37C6 @ Finger Lakes 27/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 55 · 5f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 55 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 05/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 63 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 63 par5/11C5OR 63C5 @ Finger Lakes 17/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 70 · 6f Slo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/11/2025 · OR 70 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 14/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 66 · 5f110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 66 par14/07C5OR 66C8 @ Finger Lakes 02/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 63 · 6f Slo 124 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 63 par2/09C8OR 63projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Finger Lakes?7th7th0
2026-07-14Finger Lakes?5th2nd+3
2025-11-17Finger Lakes?6th3rd+3
2025-11-05Finger Lakes?4th1st+3
2025-10-27Finger Lakes?1st-1th+2
2025-09-29Finger Lakes?3rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0327/1014/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength19%

Delivery trend -10.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/03/20163rd12/137%78%+0.41
01/09/20257th9/276%0%-0.76
29/09/20253rd13/266%67%+0.01
27/10/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
05/11/20254th12/137%40%+0.03
17/11/20256th16/116%0%-0.16
14/07/20265th4/179%33%-0.46
02/09/20267th11/893%0%-0.93