2
Always My Folks
5yo Gelding · 9-4
Happy Valley · Hoi Mei Handicap · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: BHA45
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sha Tin | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength78%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 55% | -0.36 |
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 73% | -0.17 |
| 26/11/2025 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 18% | -0.63 |
| 19/02/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 46% | -0.20 |
| 11/03/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 73% | +0.17 |
| 08/04/2026 | 12th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 15/04/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 64% | -0.23 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |