8
Diriya
5yo Gelding · 8-13
Happy Valley · Hoi Mei Handicap · 5f
#9
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class: BHA37
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA37 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Sha Tin | BHA47 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 69% | +0.22 |
| 01/07/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 21/09/2025 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 07/12/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 04/01/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 11/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 11/03/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 18% | -0.29 |
| 01/04/2026 | 14th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 03/05/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.12 |