4
Jolly Companion
7yo Gelding · 9-4
Happy Valley · Hoi Mei Handicap · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA40 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength85%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 27% | -0.36 |
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 01/04/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 55% | -0.06 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |
| 15/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 06/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 62% | +0.46 |