14
Lean Master
6yo Gelding · 9-2
Happy Valley · Hoi Mei Handicap · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: BHA41
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength46%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 18/01/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 11/02/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 36% | -0.24 |
| 11/03/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 36% | -0.06 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 24/06/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 09/09/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |