7
Macanese Master
7yo Gelding · 9-1
Happy Valley · Hoi Mei Handicap · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
15/4
Win Prob
68%
Place Prob
50%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: BHA25
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA33 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength82%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 21/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 11/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 01/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 06/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 91% | +0.33 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.20 |