12
Solar River
5yo Gelding · 8-10
Happy Valley · Hoi Mei Handicap · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: BHA38
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA38 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-07-16 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2025 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 82% | +0.27 |
| 14/05/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 28/06/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 46% | -0.33 |
| 16/07/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 22/04/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 64% | -0.18 |
| 27/06/2026 | 12th | 4/1 | 79% | 15% | -0.64 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 09/09/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 9% | -0.44 |