11
Spicy Spangle
6yo Gelding · 8-11
Happy Valley · Hoi Mei Handicap · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: BHA42
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 9% | +0.04 |
| 20/12/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.23 |
| 28/01/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 73% | -0.13 |
| 11/02/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 11/03/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 45% | -0.15 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 06/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |