5
Sweet Briar
8yo Gelding · 9-4
Happy Valley · Hoi Mei Handicap · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 10.2 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA47 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sha Tin | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-23 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.20 |
| 08/06/2025 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 8% | -0.19 |
| 26/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 23/12/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 28/01/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 19/02/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 08/03/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/04/2026 | 13th | 80/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 29/04/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |