7
California Bay
5yo Gelding · 9-0
Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA48 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 85% | +0.08 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 92% | +0.01 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 69% | +0.03 |
| 06/04/2026 | 12th | 11/2 | 71% | 15% | -0.56 |
| 26/04/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.09 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/05/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 27/06/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |