5
Holmes A Court
5yo Gelding · 9-3
Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 8.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Sha Tin | BHA56 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Sha Tin | BHA58 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 14/12/2025 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/12/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 25/01/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 11/02/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 04/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |
| 18/03/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 55% | -0.01 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |