14
Honorary
5yo Gelding · 8-10
Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Sha Tin | BHA40 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA42 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA44 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA46 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sha Tin | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 11/01/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 01/02/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 22/02/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 19/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 69% | -0.18 |