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I Am Back

5yo Gelding · 8-9

Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Happy Valley 03/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 6f 1273/12C?BHA52 @ Sha Tin 20/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 52 · 6f Gd 129 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 52 par20/1252OR 52C0 @ Happy Valley 15/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 6f Goo 12615/07C?projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15Happy Valley?7th7th0
2025-12-20Sha TinBHA5212th12th0
2025-12-03Happy Valley?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1220/1215/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -27.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/12/20258th40/10%36%+0.36
20/12/202512th28/10%0%0.00
15/07/20267th7/163%45%-0.18