11
Loving Vibes
6yo Gelding · 8-6
Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/5
Win Prob
60%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |
| 07/01/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 04/02/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 08/03/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 25/03/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 22/04/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.11 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 91% | +0.05 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 91% | -0.01 |