12
Tactical Command
7yo Gelding · 8-5
Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: BHA35
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength23%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 28/01/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 25/02/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 04/03/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 27/05/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |
| 10/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 01/07/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |