8
Family Fortune
6yo Gelding · 8-9
Happy Valley · Big Wave Bay Handicap · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: BHA27
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA37 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Sha Tin | BHA33 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength56%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 38% | -0.17 |
| 28/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 54% | +0.17 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 15/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 77% | +0.14 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 01/07/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |