4
Fluorescence
5yo Gelding · 9-3
Happy Valley · Big Wave Bay Handicap · 1m 1f
#13
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 11.5 /10 (raw 11.5)
Highest class: BHA55
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA55 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA57 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | BHA64 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength33%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 08/03/2026 | 14th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/03/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/04/2026 | 14th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/05/2026 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 13/06/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |