2
Jumbo Steps
5yo Gelding · 9-7
Happy Valley · Big Wave Bay Handicap · 1m 1f
#11
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 8.6)
Highest class: BHA61
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA61 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA63 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA64 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA64 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 21/06/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/07/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |