1
Noisy Boy
6yo Gelding · 9-8
Happy Valley · Big Wave Bay Handicap · 1m 1f
#10
Rank
Odds
11/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA62 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength88%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 18/03/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 01/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 62% | +0.35 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 06/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 10/06/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 27/06/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 54% | -0.33 |