12
Ocean Impact
6yo Gelding · 8-6
Happy Valley · Big Wave Bay Handicap · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: BHA45
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA45 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA47 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 55% | -0.01 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 77% | +0.40 |
| 18/03/2026 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 18% | -0.37 |
| 01/04/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 15/04/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 62% | +0.46 |
| 15/07/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 36% | -0.19 |