7
Romantic Fantasy
6yo Gelding · 8-10
Happy Valley · Big Wave Bay Handicap · 1m 1f
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: BHA36
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA45 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA45 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA45 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA40 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |
| 22/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.24 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 31/05/2026 | 14th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |