5
Romantic Laos
8yo Gelding · 9-2
Happy Valley · Big Wave Bay Handicap · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA53 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength95%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 11/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 55% | -0.06 |
| 13/05/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 45% | -0.15 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 54% | +0.38 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |