3
Serangoon
8yo Gelding · 9-4
Happy Valley · Big Wave Bay Handicap · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA53 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA54 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Sha Tin | BHA47 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/2025 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 45% | -0.43 |
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 77% | +0.08 |
| 21/01/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 04/03/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 45% | -0.15 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 29/04/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 13/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |