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11

Smiling One

5yo Gelding · 8-7

Happy Valley · Big Wave Bay Handicap · 1m 1f

#12

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 10.8 /10 (raw 10.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Sha Tin 01/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 1271/07C?BHA51 @ Sha Tin 23/11/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 51 · 7f Gd 126 · below its mark23/11/2025 · OR 51 par23/1151OR 51C0 @ Happy Valley 08/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 1m Gd 1278/04C?C0 @ Happy Valley 13/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m Gd 12613/05C?4 @ Happy Valley 03/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 1m GF 1233/064BHA45 @ Sha Tin 04/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 45 · 1m1f Gd 121 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 45 par4/0745OR 45projClass-projected finish: 14th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Sha TinBHA4513th13th0
2026-06-03Happy Valley48th8th0
2026-05-13Happy Valley?10th10th0
2026-04-08Happy Valley?8th8th0
2025-11-23Sha TinBHA5114th14th0
2025-07-01Sha Tin?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0723/118/0413/053/064/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength24%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/07/202512th50/10%15%+0.15
23/11/202514th66/10%0%0.00
08/04/20268th100/10%36%+0.36
13/05/202610th28/10%18%+0.18
03/06/20268th50/10%36%+0.36
04/07/202613th20/10%8%+0.08