10
Star Brose
5yo Gelding · 8-8
Happy Valley · Big Wave Bay Handicap · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: BHA41
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA41 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA43 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA44 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA43 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/01/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.23 |
| 25/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 64% | +0.00 |
| 04/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 91% | +0.04 |
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 5/4 | 93% | 55% | -0.39 |
| 17/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.02 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 77% | -0.05 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.16 |