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14

Super Goldendragon

4yo Gelding · 9-9

Happy Valley · Big Wave Bay Handicap · 1m 1f

#2

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA52 @ Sha Tin 19/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 52 · 1m1f GF 129 · beat its mark19/10/2025 · OR 52 par19/1052OR 52C0 @ Sha Tin 15/11/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 1m2f Gd 129BHA50 @ Sha Tin 11/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 50 · 1m1f GF 127 · beat its mark11/01/2026 · OR 50 par11/0150OR 50BHA48 @ Sha Tin 14/02/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 48 · 1m1f GF 125 · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 48 parC0 @ Happy Valley 08/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m Gd 1228/04C?C0 @ Happy Valley 29/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m3f Gd 121BHA49 @ Sha Tin 17/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 49 · 1m1f Goo 125 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 49 par17/0549OR 49BHA51 @ Sha Tin 31/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 51 · 1m2f Gd 129 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 51 parBHA51 @ Sha Tin 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 51 · 1m2f Gd 126 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 51 par27/0651OR 51projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27Sha TinBHA511st1st0
2026-05-31Sha TinBHA513rd3rd0
2026-05-17Sha TinBHA492nd2nd0
2026-04-29Happy Valley?1st1st0
2026-04-08Happy Valley?6th6th0
2026-02-14Sha TinBHA4814th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1014/0217/0527/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/10/202511th100/10%23%+0.23
15/11/202513th66/10%8%+0.08
11/01/20266th80/10%62%+0.62
14/02/202614th50/10%0%0.00
08/04/20266th80/10%55%+0.55
29/04/20261st50/10%100%+1.00
17/05/20262nd16/116%92%+0.77
31/05/20263rd4/179%85%+0.06
27/06/20261st11/271%100%+0.29