13
Supreme Mastermind
5yo Gelding · 9-0
Happy Valley · Big Wave Bay Handicap · 1m 1f
#14
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 8.3)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA54 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA56 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sha Tin | BHA58 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Sha Tin | BHA64 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength46%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 13th | 5/1 | 74% | 8% | -0.66 |
| 11/01/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 18/01/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 46% | +0.09 |
| 08/02/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 01/03/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.25 |
| 29/03/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |
| 15/04/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 21/06/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |