12
Same To You
8yo Gelding · 8-6
Happy Valley · The Community Chest Cup (Handicap) · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: BHA31
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA43 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA42 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA44 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 28/01/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 22/02/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 11/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 03/05/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 23% | +0.18 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 27/06/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |