3
Armour War Eagle
7yo Gelding · 9-6
Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: BHA60
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA62 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sha Tin | BHA62 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sha Tin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |
| 21/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 08/02/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.39 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 29/03/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 27/06/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 8% | -0.19 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 73% | +0.02 |